Friday, 28 December 2018 08:00

POLLING ANALYSIS SHOWS SNP IN POLE POSITION

SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE OUTSTRIPS TORY BREXIT
 
An end of year review of polling shows the SNP would be in pole position in Scotland for a snap Westminster election – with surveys suggesting the SNP would gain seats, while the Tories and Labour would fall behind.
 

In the 22 opinion polls on Westminster voting intentions in Scotland since the 2017 general election, the SNP has topped every poll - with support for the party increasing in 82% of the polls. On average, the SNP vote is up 1.5 percentage points (to 38.4%), while support for the Tories has fallen by 2.8 percentage points (to 25.8%), and support for Labour has fallen by 1.1 percentage points (to 26.0%).
 
The analysis makes bleak reading for the Tories, who have fallen back from their 2017 election result in every single poll since, and for Labour who have fallen back in 73% of the polls.
 
Polling analysis has also revealed growing support for independence in Scotland. Of the 93 opinion polls on independence since the 2014 referendum, support for independence has increased in 85% of polls. On average, support for independence is up 2.7 percentage points (to 47.4%).
 
The last poll of 2018 showed support for independence at a two-year high. The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times (Sample: 1,028 adults; Fieldwork: 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018) put support for independence at 47%, and found a majority of Scots would back independence over both a No Deal Brexit (59%) and the Bad Deal scenario negotiated by the Prime Minister (53%).
 
Commenting SNP Depute Leader, Keith Brown MSP, said:
 
“These polls show that people are continuing to put their trust in the SNP to stand up for Scotland.
 
“Should there be a snap Westminster election in 2019, the SNP would be in pole position to gain seats – with the Tories and Labour both falling behind.
 
“It is no surprise that support for the Westminster parties is collapsing, when both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are utterly obsessed about dragging Scotland over the Brexit cliff edge against our will.
 
“Polls show a majority of Scots support independence over a No Deal Brexit or Theresa May’s bad deal Brexit. It’s time the UK government and Labour opposition stopped sidelining Scotland’s interests and backed a second EU referendum with the option of remaining in the EU.
 
“The Tories are consumed by the complete and utter chaos of Brexit, and Labour have given up any pretence of being a credible alternative - by backing Tory plans to leave the EU, despite the huge damage it would do to Scottish jobs, living standards and the economy.
 
“As we hurtle ever closer towards Brexit, the SNP will continue to stand up to the Tories and fight for what’s best for Scotland’s future.”
 

 
Average of all Westminster polls since 2017 election:
 

  % Change
SNP 38.4% +1.5
Labour 26.0% -1.1
Tory 25.8% -2.8
LibDem 6.6% -0.2
Other 3.2% +2.6
     
Lead +11.5% +1.7

 
There have been at least 22 polls in Scotland since the 2017 general election, amounting to a total sample of 23,134.
 
The SNP has topped every poll, and support for the party has increased in 82% of the polls. On an average of all those polls, the SNP vote is up 1.5 percentage points (to 38.4%), while support for the Tories has fallen by 2.8 percentage points (to 25.8%), support for Labour has fallen by 1.1% (to 26.0%), and support for the Lib Dems has fallen by 0.2 percentage points (to 6.6%).
 
Support for the Tories has fallen in every poll since the general election, while support for Labour has fallen in 73% of polls.
 
Independence Polling
 
There have been 93 polls on independence since the 2014 referendum – of which, 85% (79) have shown support for independence has increased. On average, support for independence is up 2.7 percentage points (to 47.4%) while opposition has fallen 2.7 percentage points (to 52.6%).

The last poll of 2018 (Panelbase for the Sunday Times; Sample: 1,028 adults; Fieldwork: 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018) puts latest support for independence at 47%. The highest for a Panelbase poll in 2 years.
 
The poll also asked people if they prefer independence to either No Deal Brexit or the negotiated deal Brexit:
 
Which do you believe would be better for Scotland?
 
  % Ex DK
Scottish independence 46% 59%
A no deal Brexit 32% 41%
Don't know 22%  
 
Which do you believe would be better for Scotland?
 
  % Ex DK
Scottish independence 45% 53%
Remaining in UK but outside EU under negotiated Brexit deal 41% 47%
Don't know 14%  

 

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