Monday, 05 November 2018 07:06



The ongoing chaos of Brexit would deliver a majority in favour of Scottish independence, according to a Survation poll published this evening.

Respondents were asked whether, from what they have seen and heard so far over Brexit, they would more or less likely to vote for Scottish independence. The figures would mean a majority of 51.39% for independence, with 48.61% against.

The substantial sample of those polled in Scotland (1,725) also show support for remaining in the EU at a higher level than during the 2016 referendum.

Current voting intentions would put the SNP 13 points clear of the Tories, picking up seven more Westminster seats than currently held.

In a blow to Labour, people think Jeremy Corbyn would handle Brexit negotiations even worse than Theresa May – who is presiding over utter chaos, and steering the UK evercloser to the disaster of a No Deal.

Figures also show that people think Brexit will have a negative impact on the economy, the NHS and upon their household finances. Additionally, the data highlights that those in Scotland view immigration more positively and want to maintain closer relationships with the EU post-Brexit than is the trend across the UK.

Commenting, SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said:

“As the chaos and despair at Westminster’s handling of Brexit continues, more and more people are drawn to the opportunities and hope for the future that independence offers.

“These figures show a significant swell in support for Scotland taking all decisions over our future for ourselves. And little wonder, as the Tories seek to drag Scotland against our will out of the EU and the Single Market, which is eight times the size of the UK alone.

“The Tories now think they can do anything they want to Scotland and get away with it. People don’t trust the Tories to protect Scotland’s interests but remarkably they trust Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party even less. Little wonder – they’re complicit in a Tory Brexit.

“People are right to be concerned about the harm that Brexit will do to our economy, our NHS and their household incomes. Brexit could cost every person in Scotland £2,300 a year and will put 80,000 jobs on the line.

“Clearly people in Scotland see the benefits of migration to our society and the need to maintain our close relationship with the EU in years ahead. That's why we need those key powers at Holyrood, and not before time.

“The more Tory and Labour politicians ignore Scotland’s interests and seek to stop us from making decisions over our future the more support for the SNP and independence will continue to grow.”

Survation poll prepared on behalf of Renegade Productions
Fieldwork Dates: 20th October – 2nd November
Full sample size: 20,090
Total respondents Scotland: 1,725

Based on recall of how respondents voted in the 2014 independence referendum, this would give a notional result on independence as below:
Total 2014 Scottish Referendum Vote
Yes No DNV
Unweighted total 1725 697 759 269
Weighted total 1612 637 713 262

Much more likely 420 310 57 53
A little more likely 190 82 65 43
Neither more nor less likely 493 130 291 72
A little less likely 72 23 23 26
Much less likely 337 65 244 28
Don’t know 100 28 33 39

Sample Totals 740 700
% 51.39% 48.61%

EU Membership
Weighted Scottish figures with don’t knows / refused removed would give the following result on the question “Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote?”
Remain 64.74%
Leave 35.26%

Westminster Voting Intention
SNP 512 39.8%
Conservative 344 26.8%
Labour 276 21.5%
LibDem 106 8.2%
Green 23 1.8%
UKIP 16 1.2%
Other 8 0.6%

Jeremy Corbyn
Q9. Imagine each of the following was Prime Minister rather than Theresa May
Do you think they would have handled the Brexit negotiations better than Mrs May, worse than Mrs May, or would it not have made any difference?:Jeremy Corbyn
Better: 26.5%
Worse: 46.35%
No difference: 27.08%
(Scottish sample of 1,622 with don’t knows removed)

The Economy
Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?:The UK economy
Good: 21.01%
Bad: 53.76%
No difference: 13.03%
Don’t know: 12.2%
(Scottish sample of 1,622)

Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?: The NHS
Good: 19.18%
Bad: 43.83%
No difference: 24.81%
Don’t know: 12.19%
(Scottish sample of 1,622)

Household finances
Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?: Your household finances
Good: 10.99%
Bad: 45.28%
No difference: 30.14%
Don’t know: 13.58%
(Scottish sample of 1,622)

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